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3.1. Demography 3.1.1. POPULATIONS Introduction The sharp demographic change in the Islamic Republic Iran in recent decades has had significant economic and social consequences. It is important to carefully review this topic in order to assess the future impact it will have on various aspects of national life, especially on the environment In the 1976 national census on population and housing, Iran’s citizenry numbered 37.7 million and had grown at an average rate of 2.7% per year since 1966. By 1986, the annual growth rate of inhabitants soared to 3.9%, and reached 49.4 million (Table ?). In the following years, this increase continued and the natural annual growth rate stood at no less than 3.2%, which was still very high. By 1996, Iran’s population had risen to 60.05 million but the annual population growth rate had slowed to 1.47%.The most important reason for this considerable reduction was a corresponding reduction in fertility. It is expected that by 2006, the populace would be 70.34 million with 67.2% living in urban areas. It is projected that by 2006, 27.63% of the population will be under 15 years of age, 67.67% will be in the 15-65 age group, and 4.7% will be over 65. It is expected that the annual population growth rate will rise slightly to 1.59%. During this decade, the percentage youth of the population will decline as the median age increases to 24.05 years. Because of the growth rate expansion from 1976 to 1986 and its subsequent decline from 1986 to 1996, the median age fell slightly from 17.4 years in 1986 and then climbed to 19.4 years in 1996. These demographic shifts mean that the country’s potentially active population, having jumped from 25.4 million in 1986 to 33.7 million in 1996, will likely reach around 47.6 million in 2006 (Fig 2). This substantial increase in the workforce will soon translate into a high demand for jobs. Thus creating employment will be one of the greatest challenges the country has to face. From 1976 to 1986, as the population growth rate surged, urbanization also gathered momentum, with the urban population increasing up to 5.4% annually-compared with only 2.4% in rural areas. The unprecedented scale of urbanization translated into the number of urban centers in Iran nearly doubling from 373 in 1976 to 615 in 1996. Rapid and uncontrolled population growth, along with expanded urbanization, has clearly had a destructive impact on the country’s environment and ecosystem. This is especially true in the case of the Caspian region, where marine and forest resources are already under pressure and this burden will be enhanced in future. In addition, soil erosion and deforestation have caused heavy floods in recent years in coastal areas accompanied by enormous destruction. Noise pollution and air pollution are rising. Oil, toxins and other pollutants are freely flowing into the sea. Indeed, the ever-expanding burden of population in its various forms and degrees are arguably the most serious problems facing the coastal zone as well as other parts of the country. The following pages outline the most important population characteristics and the challenges facing the Caspian coastal zone on a province-by-province basis.
Gilan Province: The population of Gilan Province in 1996 was over 2,241,896 that included 512,102 households. There are 1,115,391 men (49.7%) and 1,126,505 women (50.3%) in this province. The total area of Gilan is 14,711 square Kilometers. 56% of the population resides in the urban areas and 47% in the rural regions. The number of registered natality in 1998 was 35,578 (1% of the province’s total population) and the number of mortality was 11,280 (0.5% of the province’s total population). The urban population allocates 52% of the newborn babies. According to the 1996 Census, the mortality rate in the Gilan Province is 6 per every 1000 inhabitants. There is a reduction in the mortality rate in comparison to the similar census conducted in 1986, which showed 8.5% for this index. In 1998, the number of marriages was 24,390 and the number of divorces was 1,239. It is interesting to point out that 67% of the marriages and 91% of the divorces were registered in the urban areas. The population structure of the province reveals a declining trend in population growth along with the reduction of youth coefficient from 41.3% in 1986 to 34.5% in 1996. This index is 5.1% less than the national rate of 39.6%. Never the less, the age group of 15 to 64 years that is the most productive part of the population, has increased from 55.4% in 1986 to 59.8% in 1996. This index is 3.7% greater than the national rate of 56.1%. The rate of elderly group has increased from 3.3% in 1986 to 5.7% in 1996. This index is 1.4% greater than the national rate of 4.3%. According to the 1996 data, the rate of pregnancy was 2 children per woman. This index was 4.8 children per woman in 1986 (national rate is 3.3). The Gross Notality Rate has decreased from 34 in one thousand to 14.2 in one thousand. The main reasons for this reduction in the provinces are:
Considering the above factors, the natural population growth rate of the province in 1996 was 0.94%, which is smaller than the national rate of 1.8%. From 1986 to 1996, over 104,807 have migrated to Gilan Province. In the same period, 120,515 have left the province. Therefore, there is a negative balance of migration in Gilan Province. According to the latest National Geographical Divisions, Gilan Province has an area of 14,711 Square Kilometers including 16 townships, 36 cities, 40 districts and 106 rural districts. The total number of villages is 2901, where 202 villages are deserted. The Rasht and Roudbar townships each possess 6 cities. Roudsar has 401 villages. The townships include Astara, Astaneh Ashrafeyeh, Amlash, Anzali Port, Talesh, Rasht, Rezvan-Shahr, Roudbar, Roudsar, Seyahkal, Shaft, Somehsara, Fouman, Lahijan, Langeroud and Masal.
Mazandaran Province According to the 1996 census, its population after the separation of the Golestan Province was 2,602,008 including 568,816 households (270,409 urban households and 298,407 rural households). There are 1,296,841 men (49.8%) and 1,305,167 women (50.2%). In another word, there are 99 men for every 100 women. 45.9% of the population resides in the urban areas and 54.1% in the rural regions. 36.33% of the total population is in the 15 and under age group, 58.9% in the 15 to 64 age group, 4.69% in the 65 and over age group. The age of the rest of the population was unknown. The average age of the population was 25.46%. The biggest percentage belonged to the age group between 25 and 64 years with 38.96% of the total population. The number of notality and mortality registered in 1998 were 41,953 (1.6% of the population) and 12,659 (0.49% of the population) respectfully. 52% of the newborn babies were registered in the urban areas and 48% in the rural regions. In the urban areas, 51.7% were boys and 48.3% were girls. In the rural regions, 50.7% were boys and 49.3% were girls. In addition, 49.5% of the total number of mortality was in the urban areas and 51.5% in the rural regions. In 1998, the number of marriages was 28,257 (50.8% was registered in the cities and 49.2% in the villages) and there were 1,830 cases of divorce, which 78.1% were registered in the cities. From the religious point of view, 99.66% of the population is Moslem, 0.02% is Zoroastrian, 0.01% is Christian and the rest is negligible. From 1986 to 1996, there were 182,288 cases of migration to or from this province that 120,112 (65.9%) migrated to the other provinces. The highest number of migration belonged to the Sari Township with 18%. Therefore, Mazandaran Province has a negative rate of migration. According to the latest National Geographic Divisions, the area of Mazandaran Province is 23,756.4 square Kilometers (1.46% of the national territory and is the 18th biggest province in the country), which includes 15 townships, 36 cities, 38 districts, 104 rural districts and 3,549 villages. Babol Township with 640 villages has the most number of villages. The townships located in this province are Behshahr, Neka, Sari, Ghaemshahr, Jouybar, Pol-e-Sefid, Babol, Babolsar, Amol, Mahmoudabad, Noor, Noshahr, Chalous, Tonekabon and Ramsar.
Golestan Province According to the 1996 census, the population of Golestan Province is 1,426,288, which 710,287 are men (49.8%) and 716,001 are women (50.2%). The total area of this province is 20,311.6 Square Kilometers. In 1996, about 41.3% of the population were residing in the urban areas. The population growth rate between 1986 and 1996 was 2.22%. In 1996, there were 268,849 households in the province, where each household consisted of 5.3 individuals. 44.4% of the above-mentioned households resided in the cities. In 1998, the number of registered notality was 26,893, from which 39.7% was in the cities and 60.3% in the villages. The rural regions show a 20.3% increase of this index in comparison to the urban areas. There is one newborn girl for every 1.07 newborn boy. In 1998, the number of registered mortality was 5,382 from which 50.7% were reported in the cities and 61.7% of the total mortality was related to men. In 1998, the number of registered marriages was 12,047 and the registered divorces were 479 cases in the province. About 78.1% of the marriages and 95% of the divorces were registered in the urban areas. Table ? shows the population distribution according to the various age groups: According to the above table, the biggest age group is between 0 to 10 years and the population under 20 years of age includes more than half (56%) of the total population. The population under 50 years of age includes 90% of the total population. As a general trend, the percentage of the youth population has decreases in comparison to the elderly in each decade. From the religious point of view, from the total population of 1,426,288 in the province, almost all of them are Moslems except 333 Zoroastrians, 169 Christians and 5 Jews. The migrants to the province from 1976 to 1986 were 148,603 that the number of men was slightly greater than the number of women. From the above group, 68% chose to reside in the cities. The total area of Golestan Province is 20,311.6 Square Kilometers and includes 7 townships of Turkman, Aliabad, Kurdkouy, Gorgan, Gonbad, Minodasht and Bandar-e-Ghaz, 16 cities, 16 districts and 43 villages. The Gonbad-e-Kavous Township, which is comprised of 5 cities, 5 districts and 12 villages, is the most densely populated region in the province. The total area of the three provinces located at the southern shorelines of the Caspian Sea is 58,779 Square Kilometers (3.6% of the national area). Among these three provinces, Mozandaran Province with the area of 23,756.4 Square Kilometers covers 40% of this region. Golestan Province with the area of 20,311.6 Square Kilometers, which covers 34.5% of this region, is the second biggest province located in the east. Gilan Province with the area of 14,711 Square Kilometers covers 25% of this region. It is the smallest province and is located in the west. In 1996, the total population of this region was 6,270,192. The national population in the same year was 60,055,484. Therefore, 10.4% of the national population resided in this region. The population concentration is 106.7 persons per Square Kilometer. The national average for this index is 36.82 persons per Square kilometers, so this region is three times more densely populated than the national average and the coastal areas are considered one of the most densely populated regions in the country. Within this region, Gilan Province with 152.4 persons per Square Kilometers has the highest density, followed by Mozandaran and Golestan Provinces with 109.5 and 70.2 persons per Square Kilometers respectively. Therefore, the population density decreases from west toward east. The most densely populated areas are the regions from Anzali Port to Lahijan in the Gilan Province. In addition, the areas from Sari to Amol in the Mazandaran Province have high population density. Although the rural habitats along the coastal areas of the Caspian Sea are similar to the distribution of population in the other rural areas of the country, they are much closer to each other. This kind of habitat has resulted from cultivation in small pieces of land. The residential units in these villages are relatively close to each other. These villages are dispersed along the entire northern plains especially the territories adjacent to the coastline. The rural residential units are less dispersed in the forest covered mountains and the narrow plains of the slopes of Alborz facing the sea or the valleys. In comparison of the populations of the 27provinces in the country, 18 provinces have population over one million, 9 provinces over 2 million, 6 provinces over 3 million and only two provinces are over 4 million (Tehran and Khorasan). Therefore, Gilan and mazandaran provinces are among the 9 provinces with 2 million population and Golestan Province is among the 18 provinces with over 1 million population. 46.7% of the total population of this region is residing in the urban areas and 53.3% in the rural regions. The rate of urban settlement decreases from west to east and instead the rate of rural settlement increases. Meanwhile, the highest rate of urban settlement is in the Gilan Province with 53% and the lowest rate of urban settlement is in the Golestan Province with 41.3%. 61.3% of the region’s population is residing in the cities and 38.3% in the villages, which shows a much lower rate of urban settlement and a much higher rate of rural settlement in comparison to the rest of the country. There is a growing trend of urban settlement in the country. The average rural settlement in the country was 45.2% in 1986. This trend is continuing in the country as well as this region. The average notality rate in the region (coastal area) is 34,808 per year, which is 1.7% of the total national number. This index is 1.6% for the Mazandaran and Gilan Provinces and 1.9% for the Golestan Province. The average annual mortality rate in the region is 0.47% of the total regional population. This index for the Gilan Province is 0.5% (the highest in the region) and 0.37% for the Golestan Province (the lowest in the region). This index for the Mazandaran Province is 0.48%. The gender ratio for the region is almost equal, 50% are male, and 50% are female. The fluctuations in this index in these provinces are negligible and the ratio of women to man is slightly higher. In contrast, at the national level, there are 100 women for every 103.3 men. The population growth rate for the period of 1986 to 1996 was equal to 1.5%. In the same period, the average population growth for the three northern provinces was 1.5% as well. But, the lowest population growth belonged to the Gilan Province (0.94%) and the highest population growth was in Golestan Province (2.22%). 3.1.2. Social structures 3.1.3. Cultural resources |
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